Archive for October, 2011

TfL “do not record” the time of car expense claims. Three questions for them.

October 21, 2011

The Evening Standard reports that Transport for London’s staff have made expense claims for over a million miles of journeys in their own cars since April 2008.

This includes some incredibly short trips – my favourite of those listed being Moorgate to Liverpool Street (about 300 metres).

Having seen the Freedom of Information responses (see below), I can reveal that other trips include Bank to Moorgate, Pimlico to Victoria and Baker Street to Marylebone. I’ve fallen over and travelled further than some of these.

Except if you’re TfL staff

The Standard article notes Transport for London’s defence that the journeys were “made at night when the Tube had stopped”.

Yet how they’re able to make this claim, I don’t know. When I asked TfL for the details of when specific trips were made, under Freedom of Information legislation, they responded that they “do not record” this information.

Insulated from London

Of the 1069 journeys of five miles or under that were claimed for in 2010/11, not a single one was cycled. (Correction 9.14am: Only 8 were cycled. Thanks to the beady-eyed Twitter user who pointed this out.) 

Is it any surprise that cyclists are dying on TfL’s dangerously designed streets? Can we realistically expect that an organisation so entrenched in car culture will actually try to sort this out?

These expense claims raise a number of questions:

  1. Why aren’t employees being encouraged to avoid using cars for short trips, as outlined in the Travel at Work Policy?
  2. Why aren’t TfL recording the times of trips made? And why is their Press Office then allowed to claim that journeys are made at night?
  3. Who is making expense claims for car trips of less than 1 mile in Central London? And who is signing them off?

Something is deeply wrong at the core of TfL. The organisation’s Chair, Boris Johnson, needs to get a grip on it.

For the main FOI response, including total miles travelled and cash paid in the last five years click here. For the spreadsheet of all 6000 trips made in the last year, click here.

Behind the stats: How TfL misled the London Assembly about Blackfriars

October 7, 2011

In September, Transport for London released a copy of a presentation they had submitted to the London Assembly about Blackfriars Bridge.

This contained some rather extraordinary claims, for example this projection (p3):

AM peak 2012 – pedestrians 58%, cyclists 6%, car occupants 14%

Given that there are currently more cyclists than car occupants, and cycling is increasing while driving is decreasing, the above is quite clearly wrong.

Thanks to the tenacity of London Assembly Member John Biggs (and his researchers), TfL has been forced to release an explanatory note, which shows the dubious assumptions that they have made in order to arrive at these figures.

TfL’s projection in their presentation:

There are a number of sins in the explanatory note (detail below). Here are some of my favourite:

  1. Citing a figure from the Department for Transport’s guidelines, but actually using a different figure.
  2. Extrapolating about what will happen at Blackfriars based on a survey about travel in the whole of London – when we have exact figures at Blackfriars going back to 1986.
  3. Using a dataset from JMP consultancy, rather than TfL’s own screenline counts, where the consultancy’s figures lend more support to TfL’s argument.
  4. Despite cycling increasing every year at Blackfriars since 1994, assuming that there will be no increase between 2010 and 2012.
  5. Similarly, despite people driving cars decreasing every year since 1996, assuming that this will not change between 2010 and 2012.

A projection based on correcting the clear errors in TfL’s methodology:

Pedestrians, cyclists and bus passengers increase. Car occupants decrease. Cyclists far outnumber car occupants.

Without pedestrians, this is what this looks like:

Cyclists 23%, car occupants 14%

Get the data behind this here.

I outline the errors and idiosyncrasies in TfL’s methodology that I have addressed below. TfL’s comments are in italics and mine are in bold.

Cars and LGVs

In 2007/08 there were 4033 car and LGV occupants.  This is based on JMP’S January 2007 counts and an occupancy rate per vehicle of 1.63. The occupancy value is from ‘Values of Time and Operating Costs’ (April 2009) TAG Unit 3.5.6, Department of Transport.

This is calculated by adding 1400 cars to 850 LGVs and multiplying by a 1.63 occupancy rate. However, the relevant occupancy rate from the DfT TAG figures cited by TfL is not 1.63 – this is the all week average for all cars. The average per km travelled figure between 7-10am for cars is 1.37, and for LGVs is 1.23.

Using the correct figures, the number of occupants is actually 2963.

For 2012 there are assumed to be 3750 [car and LGV] occupants.  This is based on modal share reported for 2007-2009 in Travel in London Report 3, where car and LGV numbers reduced by 7%.

Using the figures from a report about travel in the whole of London is an odd choice when we have exact year-on-year figures about car and LGV rates at Blackfriars back to 1986.

When we look at those figures, we see that cars have reduced by 7% over the last 2 years – so a reduction of 7% by 2012 would mean that they stayed constant between 2010 and 2012. This seems unlikely, given that car usage has decreased in every period since 1994. 7% is the smallest post-congestion charge 2 year reduction, so it seems conservative to use that for the change between 2010 and 2012.

LGVs increased 6% in the last 2 years, and stayed constant in the 2 years before that – so let’s assume a 3% increase next year.

HGVs

In 2007/08 there were 259 HGV occupants.  This is based on JMP’S January 2007 counts and an occupancy rate per vehicle of 1.

Again an interesting choice of dataset – using the figures from a consultancy rather than TfL’s own screenline counts in the same year which show only 67 HGVs during rush hour.

There is nothing wrong with having two datasets, but it seems reasonable to use an average of the two for a total of 163 HGVs.

Cyclists

In 2007/08 there were 1173 cyclists.  This is based on JMP’S January 2007 cycle counts which have been uplifted by 17% to reflect seasonal differences in cycle numbers.

Once again this is lower than TfL’s own screenline data (1288 cyclists) but it’s not too different so let’s accept it.

In 2012 there are assumed to be 1666 cyclists.  Cycling numbers uplifted by 42%, based on modal share changes reported 2007-2009 in Travel in London Report 3.

Except once again TfL use a report for the whole of London when we have hourly data for this particular bridge for the last 25 years.

Cycling increased 40% between 2008 and 2010, so TfL are saying that it will not increase at all between 2010 and 2012 which seems highly unlikely. In four year period of 2006-2010, cycling over Blackfriars increased 100%. So once again let’s go for a reasonably conservative estimated 2008-2012 increase and say 65%.

Taxi Occupants

In 2007/08 there were 2254 occupants.  This is based on JMP’S January 2007 traffic counts and an occupancy rate of 1.8 based on TfL Strategy Guidelines.

Which guidelines? We know that 1/3rd of taxis in the City are empty between 7am and 10am. So this claim means that the average occupied taxi has 2.7 passengers. A figure this high demonstrates what we already suspected: that TfL are including the driver as an occupant.

This is simply incorrect. 1000 empty taxis add nothing – in fact it’s worse than that. Indeed some might argue you should count taxis with just the driver in as worth less than 0. But let’s not, and just subtract the driver for a figure of 0.8 people per taxi.

Pedestrians, bus passengers and motorcyclists

There aren’t enough other sources of data for pedestrians or bus passengers, so we have to accept those estimates. Motorcyclists seems about right.

I am astonished that Transport for London seem to be able to get away with this. Are they accountable to anyone? This is what I’ll be asking on Wednesday, 5.45pm at Blackfriars.

Blackfriars: Don’t let Boris Johnson’s TfL send cycling back to 2006

October 5, 2011

In the recent discussions about the proposed 80mph motorway speed limit, I was reminded on twitter of an article by Jeremy Clarkson, where he says,

“People go with the flow. We drive as fast as traffic conditions allow. We use public transport when it’s better than taking the car. We use an umbrella when it’s raining and wear a jumper when it’s chilly.”

Clarkson is right. I love driving – but I always cycle or use public transport to commute in London. It makes sense.

Expanding on Clarkson’s point (words I don’t write often) is that as well as people shifting between modes of transport, they also shift routes within those modes, according to what makes sense at the time.

This effect seems to be present if we look at cycling levels at Blackfriars Bridge over the last 10 years – and it shows just how harmful TfL’s changes will be if they go ahead.

Blackfriars in 2004 (image from LCC City of London)

The magnet effect

Blackfriars Bridge has seen a greater than threefold rise in cycle commuters since 2000. But this increase has not been constant.

Prior to 2006, cycling over Blackfriars changed at around the same rate that cycling increased overall on London’s main roads. Since 2006 the number of cyclists over Blackfriars has more than doubled – far outpacing the overall cycling rise.

Increase in rush hour cycling over Blackfriars compared with increase over London's main roads: since 2006, the popularity of Blackfriars has skyrocketed.

What is interesting is that we have not seen the same increase in cycling on the bridges which neighbour Blackfriars: Waterloo to the west and Southwark to the east.

In fact, rush hour cycling on both those bridges between 2006 and 2010 actually decreased – although cycling in London increased by around a third.

Cycling rates over three bridges, 7-10am northbound, 2000-2010. 100 = average in 2000 over all Central London bridges.

Why did commuters old and new (the total number of people crossing all three bridges still increased) suddenly choose Blackfriars over the other bridges?

I may be misinformed, but I don’t believe London’s office space all moved between 2006 and 2010.

What did change was the deaths of two cyclists in 2004 over Blackfriars Bridge. Transport for London resurfaced the road, adding a wide cycle lane.

Blackfriars post 2006 – resurfaced after the deaths of two cyclists with a wide, mandatory cycle lane, no longer between two lanes of traffic.

This wasn’t perfect – the northbound junction was still a problem – but a wide clear space, largely separate from the bus lane, suddenly made this route cyclable again, at least relative to the neighbouring bridges.

The lane won the London Cycle Campaign’s award for best cycle facility of the year in 2006.

The increase in cyclists supports the argument that cycle bloggers have been making for a long time: what really bikes on streets is not marketing (competition in public services has not yet led to each bridge advertising its individual benefits to prospective consumers) – it’s feeling safe.

Going backwards

Jenny Jones, the Green Party London Assembly Member said last week that London’s cycle revolution is losing momentum.

At Blackfriars, TfL’s plans to narrow the northern cycle lane, remove the advanced stop box and addition of an extra traffic lane, are all clear signs that we’re now moving backwards.

I don’t want cycling to return to 2006 levels at Blackfriars - or at Elephant and Castle, Finchley, Richmond, Vauxhall or anywhere else that Boris Johnson’s TfL is making regressive changes to London’s streets.

That’s why I’ll be at Blackfriars on Wednesday October 12th at 5.45pm, for a flashride to show the Mayor which direction London needs to be moving. See you there.

Get the data.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 27 other followers